financial-stability
3 articles
- AI Capex Has Rewritten the Fed's Reaction Function
AI investment is large enough to rewrite the Fed's reaction function through the neutral rate and inflation classification, but the funds rate barely touches AI capex. The real transmission runs through spreads and term premia.
- The Stablecoin–Sovereign Debt Flywheel
The GENIUS Act structurally channels stablecoin adoption into short-dated Treasury demand — but the 'trillion-dollar buyer' framing is incomplete. The flywheel compresses front-end yields while concentrating rollover risk and introducing new redemption-run fragilities.
- The Private Credit Expansion: Regulatory Arbitrage, Liquidity Cracks, and the Re-Intermediation of Bank Balance Sheets
Private credit AUM has grown from $158 billion in 2010 to over $2 trillion today. This analysis examines the regulatory arbitrage that enabled the expansion, the emerging liquidity stress tests, and why banks are re-intermediating rather than retreating.