4 articles
China's controls on rare earth expertise target the operators and engineers required to bring Western separation and magnet plants to commercial yield. Tacit process knowledge is the binding constraint on replication.
Traceability separates physically equivalent magnets into distinct procurement markets based on verified eligibility and mine-to-magnet evidence.
China controls 91% of rare earth refining and 98% of heavy rare earth separation. Western mining is expanding, but separation, magnet manufacturing, and process expertise remain the binding constraints.
The semiconductor supply chain is not a policy debate — it is a physical constraint. Advanced packaging, equipment tooling, and rare earth processing cannot be duplicated instantaneously. The irreversible timeline for strategic decoupling is approximately 2028-2032.