yield-curve
7 articles
- The Defense Stock Selloff Is a Discount-Rate Shock Concentrated in High-Multiple Names
XAR fell 19.3% in six weeks as war-driven inflation pushed long-term yields higher. Equal weighting concentrated the damage in high-multiple constituents, while mature primes fell 8–10% with backlogs, sales, and guidance intact.
- The 5% Hurdle-Rate Economy: How Higher Long-Term Yields Sort Capital
Long-term Treasury yields above 5% are raising corporate hurdle rates across the economy. The main sorting variables are asset duration, financing structure, and pricing power. Long-lived assets with weak pricing power face the most pressure; capital-light businesses and assets that can pass through replacement costs are more resilient.
- Gold Is Pricing Fiscal Repression, Not Real Yields
Gold's rally reflects a fiscal-sustainability and currency-debasement premium. Treasury buybacks, regulatory support for Treasury demand, and rising term premiums matter more than the traditional real-yield model.
- The Friendshoring Infrastructure Yield Curve
Friendshoring returns accrue to power infrastructure, transformers, grid access, and logistics nodes—not factories. The key scarcity is electrical capacity.
- The Stablecoin–Sovereign Debt Flywheel
The GENIUS Act structurally channels stablecoin adoption into short-dated Treasury demand — but the 'trillion-dollar buyer' framing is incomplete. The flywheel compresses front-end yields while concentrating rollover risk and introducing new redemption-run fragilities.
- Interest Rate Transmission in High-Debt Regimes
The traditional interest rate transmission mechanism has structurally inverted in a high-debt regime. Rate hikes redistribute demand rather than compress it — sovereign interest expense flows to private Treasury holders, private legacy debt remains insulated by duration lock-ins, and the strain relocates to the term premium and the refinancing wall rather than disappearing. Fiscal-monetary interaction, collateral repricing, and state capacity now override private credit cycles.
- The Yield Curve Is Not Broken: What the Term Premium Is Actually Pricing
The yield curve decomposition holds mechanically — but the term premium has returned as the dominant driver. What it is pricing, why fiscal dominance is a live concern but not yet the operative regime, and what it means for duration positioning.