CHIPS-Act
4 articles
- Grid Capacity, Not Tax Incentives, Rations Industrial Geography
Infrastructure allocation predicts industrial geography only when capital is concentrated, project-specific, and backed by durable demand. Grid capacity has become the primary rationing variable.
- The Mature-Node Scarcity Paradox
U.S. export controls aimed at leading-edge chips inadvertently created a pricing-power windfall in China's mature-node foundries. The mechanism: a deliberate policy line, state capital reallocation, and an unmodeled AI demand shock.
- The Compute Substrate Race: Where the U.S. and China Hit Different Walls
AI compute scarcity has migrated from fabrication to HBM, advanced packaging, grid access, and cooling. China is constrained upstream; the U.S. downstream.
- Interest Rate Transmission in High-Debt Regimes
The traditional interest rate transmission mechanism has structurally inverted in a high-debt regime. Rate hikes redistribute demand rather than compress it — sovereign interest expense flows to private Treasury holders, private legacy debt remains insulated by duration lock-ins, and the strain relocates to the term premium and the refinancing wall rather than disappearing. Fiscal-monetary interaction, collateral repricing, and state capacity now override private credit cycles.