CPI
6 articles
- The Freight Inflation Feedback Loop: Why Industrial Inflation Outlasts Oil
A prolonged Hormuz disruption shifts inflation from crude oil into freight, refining, chemicals, fertilizer, and inventories. Oil prices may stabilize while industrial inflation persists.
- Gold Is Pricing Fiscal Repression, Not Real Yields
Gold's rally reflects a fiscal-sustainability and currency-debasement premium. Treasury buybacks, regulatory support for Treasury demand, and rising term premiums matter more than the traditional real-yield model.
- The $630 Billion Wastewater Cliff: Why Municipal Infrastructure Is Pivoting to Bonds
The U.S. faces a $630B+ wastewater infrastructure funding gap over 20 years. With IIJA supplemental funds expiring September 30, 2026, utilities are front-loading municipal bond issuance to finance consent decree mandates and nutrient-removal upgrades.
- The Landfill Monopoly and the RIN Credit Arbitrage: Why Waste Management Is Not a Garbage Truck Business
Waste Management and Republic Services are not defensive utility-like collection networks. The actual structural moat is geographically non-replicable landfill permits combined with a lucrative but reversible federal RIN credit subsidy.
- Interest Rate Transmission in High-Debt Regimes
The traditional interest rate transmission mechanism has structurally inverted in a high-debt regime. Rate hikes redistribute demand rather than compress it — sovereign interest expense flows to private Treasury holders, private legacy debt remains insulated by duration lock-ins, and the strain relocates to the term premium and the refinancing wall rather than disappearing. Fiscal-monetary interaction, collateral repricing, and state capacity now override private credit cycles.
- The Yield Curve Is Not Broken: What the Term Premium Is Actually Pricing
The yield curve decomposition holds mechanically — but the term premium has returned as the dominant driver. What it is pricing, why fiscal dominance is a live concern but not yet the operative regime, and what it means for duration positioning.