Strait-of-Hormuz
6 articles
- The Fed Cannot Repair a Supply Shock: Why Tightening Into the Oil Crisis Is Stagflation by Construction
The Fed is tightening demand into a supply-driven energy shock. China is already suppressing global oil demand through import cuts and reserve drawdowns, making additional Fed tightening economically redundant and mechanically stagflationary.
- The Freight Inflation Feedback Loop: Why Industrial Inflation Outlasts Oil
A prolonged Hormuz disruption shifts inflation from crude oil into freight, refining, chemicals, fertilizer, and inventories. Oil prices may stabilize while industrial inflation persists.
- The LNG Route-Security Premium: Deliverability Has Decoupled from Nominal Cost
The 2026 Hormuz crisis demonstrated that LNG value depends on physical deliverability, not merely liquefaction cost. Open-ocean terminals are capturing the resulting route-security premium.
- The Dark-Shipping Information Premium
AIS blackouts and GNSS spoofing are increasing the value of satellite SAR, RF geolocation, ownership analytics, and insurance data that operate independently of vessel self-reporting.
- The Taiwan Strait Contingency: What Breaks First When the World's Foundry Hub Goes Dark
A 30-day Taiwan Strait closure is not a theoretical exercise — it is a supply chain stress test. The AI chips are the most resilient in the short run. The boring chips break first. The actual gating constraint may be energy, not fabrication.
- The Yield Curve Is Not Broken: What the Term Premium Is Actually Pricing
The yield curve decomposition holds mechanically — but the term premium has returned as the dominant driver. What it is pricing, why fiscal dominance is a live concern but not yet the operative regime, and what it means for duration positioning.