4 articles
AI power buildout is constrained less by generation and more by the infrastructure required to deliver power. Large power transformers (LPTs), with 3-5 year lead times, have become the critical bottleneck. Economic value accrues to those controlling scarce manufacturing and delivery capacity.
Retired power plants, aluminum smelters, and industrial sites are gaining value because they already have high-voltage grid connections that can take years to replicate. The opportunity depends on whether regulators preserve the advantages of these existing interconnections.
Friendshoring returns accrue to power infrastructure, transformers, grid access, and logistics nodes—not factories. The key scarcity is electrical capacity.
AI compute scarcity has migrated from fabrication to HBM, advanced packaging, grid access, and cooling. China is constrained upstream; the U.S. downstream.